While the headlines scream tariffs and trade wars, the real force shaping iGaming right now isn’t political. It’s liquidity — and if you’re a founder, investor or acquirer, you need to know exactly where the current is flowing.
Forget the noise. Liquidity is the silent hand behind capital access, valuations, and deal momentum. Get it right, and you’re ahead of the cycle. Get it wrong, and you’re chasing shadows in a tightening market.
Tariffs Are a Distraction. Liquidity’s the Main Plotline
Yes, US-China tensions make for good TV. But for iGaming, the impact is largely psychological. The real game changer lies in bond markets, treasury cash flows, and central bank policy. As rate cut whispers grow louder, the table is being reset — and iGaming’s position could become more attractive.
The $9 Trillion Elephant in the Room
The US faces $9 trillion in maturing debt over the next 18 months. That’s a refinancing wall unlike any in recent memory. Add rising interest costs and strained bond demand, and the pressure on the Fed to ease is mounting.
Behind the scenes, there’s also a game of dollar diplomacy. Think Kissinger-era petrodollar agreements, but updated for treasury auctions. The aim? Spread the debt load globally, maintain auction demand, and keep the US dollar dominant.
For iGaming, this matters. If liquidity loosens, we could see a rebound in M&A appetite, investor risk tolerance, and access to growth capital.
Valuations Rise and Fall on Liquidity – Not Hype
Liquidity drives sentiment. Sentiment drives valuations. It’s that simple.
We saw a liquidity wave crest earlier this year, but cracks are forming. US tax drains, China tightening, and rising bond volatility all hint that the tide could be going out.
So, for iGaming founders sitting on a healthy balance sheet and clean metrics, this might be the best window to raise capital or exit. It won’t stay open forever.
What Today’s Macro Means for iGaming Deals
Markets are jittery, but deals are still happening — with more discipline. Here’s the reality check:
- Capital is more expensive. Credit facilities are pricier and terms are tighter.
- Buyers are pickier. No more spray-and-pray. Deals must come with synergy and story.
- Strategics hold the power. Those with balance sheet muscle are transacting without leverage.
- Valuations are grounded. The days of Covid-boom multiples are gone.
Still, good assets are commanding good terms. That hasn’t changed.
2025 Deal Sentiment: A Measured Optimism
Despite volatility, around 50 deals closed in 2024, showing sustained appetite. Q1 of 2025 has seen a slight pause, but off-market and strategic deals remain active — especially among operators and tech suppliers.
Affiliate M&A has cooled, hit by:
- Google’s evolving algorithms
- Brazilian regulatory shifts
- Cookie tracking constraints
- Increased scrutiny on parasitic traffic
Yet the affiliate model remains resilient, particularly among private, lean, and adaptive firms. The long game still looks good.
Global Regulation: The New Map of Opportunity
iGaming flows are also being redrawn by shifting regulatory climates:
- Brazil is still in a land rush mode ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
- The US remains a patchwork, but sweeps and DFS models continue to profit.
- UK remains quiet post-budget — stability is underrated.
- Southeast Asia (including Thailand) is edging toward formalisation.
- UAE is quietly becoming a major future frontier.
- India is still on the launchpad.
Meanwhile, crypto and sweepstakes casinos are gaining traction as over-regulated markets push innovation underground.
Strategy for Founders: This Is a Positioning Game
So, what’s the trade right now?
- Liquidity remains elevated, supporting iGaming risk assets for now.
- High-quality assets will always attract capital.
- Inflation is the wild card — a spike could shift central banks back into tightening mode.
- The fundamentals remain strong: Recurring revenue, global reach, digital scalability.
In short, this is a market for the prepared, not the lucky.
Final Thought: Don’t Predict. Position.
April’s inflation came in at 2.33%, and markets are still riding high. But under the surface, macro fault lines remain. If you’re a founder thinking about growth, a raise, or a clean exit, this may be your best moment in years.
As one fund manager put it:
“We’re not fully deployed, but we’ve invested more in the last six months than we have in years. That should tell you something.”
The window is open. Make your move.